The Wuhan Coronavirus
- Elements of Science
- Feb 9, 2020
- 3 min read
January 11, 2020
The World Health Organization has announced the discovery of a new type of coronavirus on January 9, 2020, and today Chinese officials have reported the first death of a patient affected by this virus, which has yet to be named. Originating in Wuhan, China, this coronavirus has caused at least fifty-nine other cases confirmed cases, with seven patients in critical condition. Wuhan contains many large markets that sell live seafood and animals; it is believed that this new coronavirus is carried by bats.
Genomic analysis by Andrew Rambaut, PhD, administrator of Virological.org, has revealed that this new coronavirus shares 89% of its genome with a related SARS coronavirus, one strain of which led to the deaths of more than 700 people between 2002 and 2003. It is also similar to the MERS coronavirus, which killed more than a third of the almost 600 people it infected in Saudi Arabia between 2012 to 2014. Vaccines do not exist for either virus.
Currently, the Wuhan coronavirus is not able to undergo human-to-human transmission, but if it evolves that ability as SARS did, it could potentially lead to a massive epidemic. CDC is currently overlooking the situation with utmost care.
By Vincent Tse
January 25, 2020 Update
As of last week, the Wuhan coronavirus (designated 2019 Novel Coronavirus, or 2019-nCoV) has been confirmed to have human-to-human transmission capabilities. As predicted during the last post, what used to be a small outbreak with only around sixty patients has turned into a full-fledged epidemic with more than 1900 confirmed cases today and nearly sixty dead. The 2019-nCoV has additionally spread to other countries such as Thailand, Japan, Canda, France, and even the United States; as of this day, there are confirmed cases near Seattle and Chicago. [5]
Wuhan recently had a large food festival with nearly 40,000 people attending; it is the current belief that many now sick people were exposed to the virus during this festival. The virus has up to a two week incubation period, so although the 1900 reported number of infected is a large spike from last time, the true number of infected is likely to be significantly higher. As of January 22, 2020, the city of Wuhan has been on high alert, with many modes of transportation being shut down in an attempt to quarantine the virus.
A recent study has revealed a 96% genetic identity with an existing coronavirus that infects bats, suggesting that the 2019-nCoV also arose in bats.6 Vaccines still do not exist; early estimates predict that it could take at least a few months before vaccines are ready.
By Vincent Tse
February 1, 2020 Update
This past Wednesday, January 30, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) evacuated 195 American citizens from Wuhan and have placed them under federal quarantine for two weeks. This is considered a drastic move by the CDC as they have not issued a quarantine since the 1960s for smallpox.7 Although people may test negative for coronavirus early on, that does not guarantee that they are not infected. Therefore, the 14 day quarantine, the suspected longest incubation period, has been implemented.7
As of now, there have been over 14,000 confirmed cases of infection with the death toll passing 300. One of those deaths is in the Philippines, the first country outside of China to report a fatality from coronavirus. The man was a resident of Wuhan that had been infected; his health was stable for a while, but his situation quickly worsened within the past day.8 This comes shortly after several countries (USA, Australia, Japan, etc.) have started to restrict or ban travelers from China. According to Cirium, a travel and analytics company, there have been 10,000 cancelled flights. [8]
While the coronavirus is no doubt a cause for concern, there is a different disease that should be in more American’s minds: influenza. According to Dr. Nora Colburn, infectious-disease physician at Ohio State University’s Wexner Medical Center, the average American is much more likely to get the flu.9 Data from the CDC suggests that around 61,000 Americans, a number far larger than the number of reported infections of coronavirus at the current time, can die from the flu during a bad year. [9]
By Vincent Tse
Works Cited
- CDC Map of Wuhan.
- The official CDC report of the case
- CIDRAP (from University of Minnesota) sums up the issue.
- Wall Street Journal describes the latest findings.
- This source describes the severity of the new virus, as well as the first US case.
- A scientific paper shows that the 2019-nCoV shares 96% of its genome with an existing
bat coronavirus.
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